The Polls

I don't put too much credit in any one poll. What I like to do is actually look at each organization and how their current poll compared to their last poll. Then look at all of the polls together and see what they are saying. Websites like realclearpolitics make that very simple.

When it comes to presidential races, it is also important to not only look at the overall numbers, but the numbers by state. There are few pages that do this.

The following map was taken from Electoral-vote.com who has the current totals at Obama 264 and McCain 261 with 13 ties. This is a big swing in the last couple of weeks and even a significant shift in the last week. The ones that are dark are very heavy in the candidates direction (of course blue is Dem and red is Rep). There are some interesting things to note. First of all Minnesota is barely for Obama. This is a state that hasn't voted for a Republican since Nixon in 1972. Hmmm... very interesting.

This map was taken from electionprojection.com and they are currently predicting McCain 274 and Obama 264. Also a dramatic reversal as of recent.

Real Clear Politics (couldn't grab their maps as pictures) also shows a dramatic trend from Obama to undecided or from undecided to McCain. They also have a feature that forces the undecided states to be either red or blue based on current polls. When you do that, they have the race McCain 274 to Obama 264.

Combine that with the fact that Obama spent more money in July on Ads than McCain has spent on the whole election.

Basically what I am saying is that the news is very positive for McCain. I read through the transcripts of the Saddleback forum and even on paper McCain was great and Obama tanked. The news reports have all reflected the same sentiment, even in far left liberal circles.

I am really looking forward to the debates. I think that McCain will come across as experienced and decisive and Obama will have a very difficult time without completely scripted answers. It will definitely be interesting.

In the meantime, I think the tide has turned.