So who won and who lost last night?

First of all here are the results.

For the Dems:
- Obama
- Edwards
- Hillary (ouch)

For the Reps:
- Huckabee
- Romney
- Thompson/McCain
- Paul (10% REALLY!?)
- Guiliani

Some quick observations.
- The real winners are #1 the Democrats. This whole thing does not bode well for Republicans because if you look at the number of voters, it's amazingly lop-sided. In many districts the numbers were at least 2 to 1 the number of Dems voting vs. the number of Reps and in some cases a 4 to 1 ratio. No bueno. What this means is that the Democratic base is energized. The Republicans... not.
- #2 winner is Obama. He slammed Hillary pretty good, but this isn't the end. Some people attack their opponents with Romney style shotguns. The Clintons? They use snipers and lots of them. Look for the gloves to come off. I think Hillary will still get the nomination. The real danger is if she kisses and makes up with Obama and asks him to be #2. That would be all kinds of no bueno.
- #3 winner is McCain. I know, he came in third. Well, when you are saying that you are going to cut farm subsidies on corn... you ain't going to win an Iowa caucus. Just isn't going to happen. Fiscal conservatives do like the message however and McCain is gaining momemtum... big time.

And on the flip side?
- #1 Loser? Romney. He's done. His last hope is to get the train back on the track in Michigan, which he should win anyway (his dad was a very popular governor there). Unfortunately the first three races are the only places he has spent money. He was banking on Iowa. McCain will take New Hampshire and get momentum for the rest of the primary. Watch Guiliani and Thompson supporters shift towards McCain. On that note...
- #2 Loser? Guiliani. He finished behind Ron Paul. Ouch. He wasn't doing hardly anything IN Iowa, but still... come on. If he doesn't pick up and win by Florida (1/29) he's done. The only way that it will swing his way then is if the other races get pretty evenly split or Romney somehow rebounds to win MI and NV and SC goes to Huckabee. Then he's got a shot... sort of. Quite frankly his message just doesn't appeal enough to the base social conservatives and he doesn't have the magnetism to inspire the fiscal and national defense conservatives to get out and vote for him over the other guys.
- #3 Loser? The Hair or Edwards as some call him. He's done. Always number two, never number one. The anti-Hillarys in the Dem party have there guy now and his name is Hussein. Edwards is done. His numbers will drop to the low teens pretty quick.

Huckabee? I don't know. The margin was certainly larger than expected. The only Republicans fired up about this thing at all are in his camp. Tough call. This definitely will give him a boost, but can he move it forward? I just don't know. I used to be excited about the guy but I've really kind of soured over the way he has stumbled with stupid comments and an extreme lack of foreign policy know how on handling countries like Iran, which is one of the HAVE to's of a president.

Okay... want a rash prediction? It will come down to Hillary v. McCain. The winner... I think would be McCain. I think the anti-Hillary vote would be enough to rally the Reps but not positive enough for the Dems to rally their base... unless Obama was the VP on the ticket, but I don't know if she or he would do it... who wants a their VP and their husband to get a better response from crowds than they do? I personally think that she would choose Richardson or another Dem governor, which won't help her that much.

That's my 2 cents. We'll know more in the next four weeks.

Exciting stuff... if you're a political geek like me.